Season Preview Magic

[KG-MVP21]

The question on everybody's mind with regards to the Magic (besides whether or not next summer includes signing Vince Carter) is whether or not the close to last season was a fluke.

Let's not kid ourselves, when the Magic began their run, they were out of it, and then by virtue of not losing started to creep back into the picture for the last playoff spot in the East. Ultimately that spot went to Milwaukee, but fans in the Magic Kingdom were given plenty to look forward to this season.

But wasn't this the same song and dance we were hearing last summer about Golden State? Weren't they supposed to be reenergized after a mid-season trade for Baron Davis propelled them into a near-miss of the playoffs themselves? In fact, as I recall, the Warriors were seen as a stronger lock for the playoffs than the Clippers because they had proven they could win with their new lineup, whereas the Clippers still had to prove Cassell and Mobley would help them reach the post-season. Well, in the end Golden State missed the playoffs, quite decisively, for yet another year. So what, if anything, makes the Magic a different case?

Well, first of all, the Magic didn't bring in a talented-yet-troubled point guard, they traded one away. By ditching Steve Francis to the Knicks, the Magic made a statement that this team now belonged to 20-year-old forward Dwight Howard. That is one huge reason why the Magic are different than the Warriors. While Golden State has a nice collection of talent, they have no glue that holds it all together. Howard is that wonderful combination of a team's best player mixed with its hardest worker. Howard still has a ways to go in terms of polishing his game (especially offensively), but in the last two years he's demonstrated a willingness to work on his game that isn't always present in some modern big-men (*cough* Curry/Chandler/Kwame *cough*).



Another thing they have working in their favor is Jameer Nelson. After two seasons of earning and losing the starting spot at point guard, the Magic finally clued in to what they had on their hands in Nelson, and handed him the reigns to the offense. Nelson, like Howard, still has some polishing to do on his floor game, but his desire to become a complete, pass-first point guard meshes well with his up-tempo game and sharp passing skills. Especially fortunate for the Magic is the fact that Nelson ranks as one of the few pass-first point guards who also has a sky-high field-goal percentage (.483 last season), making him a pass-first guard by choice, not by necessity.

There are issues, though, that keep the Magic from being a lock to dance in the first round this April. First is that they still have no natural shooting guard on the roster outside of J.J. Redick, who is a perfect backup in the Dell Curry/Steve Kerr mold, but he is not a starter in the NBA.

DeShawn Stevenson left a void on this roster that the Magic opted not to replace, and not only does that make a thin bench thinner, it leaves them with no player on this roster who can create his own shot. While having a point guard like Nelson will prevent this from being suicide, it remains a hurdle the team will have to actively overcome to be successful. While Stevenson didn't exactly fill that role last year, this team not having a dependable go-to guy on offense might cause their offense to sputter if Howard is having an off night.

The key to this team, though, is going to be the play of Darko Milicic. If he can prove that he belongs, and he will likely start down low with Howard, and provide a nice high-post option to Howard's low-post presence, the Magic frontcourt of the future could be a force to be reckoned with in the present. That said, Milicic still has to prove that he can perform on a consistent basis, because even this summer at the World Championships he had trouble being a consistent weapon for the rebuilding Serbia and Montenegro team.

At the end of the day, I believe this team will be among the top-eight that qualifies for the playoffs in the East, but I feel uneasy about it. While I think that this is a different situation than the one that faced Golden State last year, I think that this team found a nice groove last year that may be hard to repeat for 82 games. They are a bubble team, no doubt, but they have definite obstacles to overcome before they can be considered a lock.

PROBABLE STARTING LINEUP

PG - Jameer Nelson

I don't know why it took so long for Nelson to be permanently granted the starting role, especially since Steve Francis could be just as selfish at shooting guard as point guard, but what's past is past and Nelson now has his starting job. What he has to do now is make sure that he is not only initiating the Magic offense but running it. This team has no dependable scorers, so it will be up to him to make sure guys are getting the ball where and when they need it to be successful. He cannot fall into the trap of just passively running plays and allowing guys to make their predetermined cuts and screens while he sits back and watches. He has to be active running the offense from the second the ball crosses the halfcourt line to when it goes through the net, otherwise this team will actually begin to (gulp) miss Steve Francis.

SG - Keyon Dooling

This is my "why not" pick of the season. This team has no one who should be starting here, and Nelson and Dooling would amount to the smallest backcourt in the league, and while they could try starting Hill or Turkoglu here, I don't see how either would be a better option than Dooling. Dooling had a good year with the Heat two seasons back acting as their third-string point guard, but he acquitted himself nicely there, proving he's able to knock down the open shot when the defenses collapse into the paint, and if Howard and Milicic can give defenses a reason to collapse, he could become a very useful weapon on the perimeter.

SF - Grant Hill

If it were up to me, I'd be starting Turkoglu here, since he had such a solid season last year and he would provide more reliability than Hill because he isn't the injury threat Hill is. But, it will be hard for the Magic to not start Hill in what will almost assuredly be his last year in Orlando, if not the NBA. Everyone knows what Hill brings to the table when healthy, but his ankle woes aren't the only problems he's having anymore after missing sixty-one games last year with hernia and groin issues. If Hill comes to camp healthy, look to him to have the starting three spot to lose, but this might also be the one season were the Magic kinda hope he isn't completely healthy so they can hasten the 'moving-on' project towards Howard, Milicic and Nelson.

PF - Dwight Howard

I don't know if calling him a beast even suffices anymore. Last year, and this summer, Howard has proven that he simply owns the paint in a way no Magic big man has since 'you know who'. He doesn't have the polish that Shaq had when he roamed the paint in Orlando, but he has all of the intimidation around the basket. The scary thing: at 20 years old he's still growing. His ceiling right now is as high as he wants it to be, and along with Chris Bosh and Amar? Stoudemire, he will be defining the role of the power forward for the years to come in the NBA. Oh yeah, and like Bosh and Stoudemire before him, look for his All-Star drought to end at two seasons.

C - Darko Milicic

This is his prove it year. All through his seasons buried in Detroit, he insisted that he was being held back and needed floor time to prove what he could mean to his team. Well, in Orlando last season he showed signs of life off of the bench, and he'll be given every opportunity to prove himself this year in the starting five. He's got a banger at his side to lighten his load deep in the paint, so all he has to worry about doing is running the floor and scoring. If he can do that consistently, developing into the kind of offensive weapon the Magic hope he can turn into, then as much as Howard is providing a banger for him to stay out of the paint, he'll provide a scoring touch that will keep Howard where he is most comfortable, too. There are no guarantees here, but it's the best shot he's going to get.